On the whole politicians, like the rest of us, are a cautious breed. They tend towards risk avoidance when it comes to decision making, with an array of focus group and opinion poll data informing almost every move. Usually, this is a good thing; making sure they don’t stray too far from the wishes of their electorate. In some instances, however, this cautious reflex can also become a dangerous one. This is true particularly when faced with the need to do something original or break new ground. Sometimes the issue is too hypothetical, sometimes the polling data just isn’t there, and sometimes it’s just an issue of principle or conscience. That’s when true leadership needs to kick in, and that’s when a President is really tested.
Obama has faced several tests like this, most notably when it came to making decisions on his signature healthcare legislation. The night before the final House vote on the bill, he went to the Hill and gave a speech to a tense Democratic caucus of legislators, where he told them, “Every once in a while a moment comes where you have the chance to vindicate all those best hopes you had about yourself, about this country, where you have a chance to make good on those promises that you made in all those town meetings and all those constituency breakfasts and all that traveling through the district, all those people who looked you in the eye and you said, ‘You know what? You’re right. The system isn’t working for you and I’m going to make it a little bit better.’ And this is one of those moments. This is one of those times. We are not bound to win, but we are bound to be true. We are not bound to succeed but we are bound to let whatever light we have shine.”
Regardless of the political ramifications he was prepared to go through with it and he was urging his colleagues to do the same. And they did. Many of them lost re-election as a result in the subsequent mid-terms of 2010, but all, nevertheless, maintained that they were proud of the vote they made that day. How it all pans out in the end is still a matter of great uncertainty.
Recently, on the gay marriage issue, Obama took another plunge into the unknown. His continuing caution on the issue was becoming destructive. He knew it was unpopular with key swathes of his own electoral coalition – most prominently, the African American community – but after Jo Biden’s explicit support for the issue, the veil had to be lifted. Despite all the polling data against it and the unpredictability of what it might mean electorally, he took the decision to speak his mind. At the time, though, he was clear that it was "very hard to say" whether the issue would hurt him or not in the fall.
But, in fact, as a result, something remarkable seems to be happening.
The first data on the electorate’s opinions about gay marriage is beginning to trickle in and in Maryland, for example, where a referendum on the issue is being considered, a seismic shift appears to be taking place. A poll in March found a majority in favor of gay marriage with a margin of just 8 percent. A more recent poll in May, however, showed the margin in favor had shot up to 20 percent. That’s a 12 percent swing, which is pretty astounding in itself. But the reason it occurred is that the African American vote went from being a margin of 17 percent against gay marriage to a margin of 19 percent for gay marriage. That’s a swing of 36 percent in only two months! Rachel Maddow pointed out, “nothing swings by 36 points in two months in American politics.”
In national polls, support for same sex marriage is reaching its highest numbers ever, and last week, in a historic move, the NAACP passed a resolution in support of same sex marriage.
It may well be that by making a single statement, the President has triggered a transformation in attitudes on a key issue of our times. Though it might have taken him a little while to come to the table - agree with him or not, support him or not - this is undoubtedly a clear example of leadership.